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What are the possible consequences of greenhouse effect?
Without
the greenhouse effect, the earth’s average temperature would have
been around 30oC lower than present, and as such the
greenhouse effect is desirable. The problem is the increased
greenhouse effect induced by human activity and the possible climate
changes and consequences to
environment and society.
According to
IPCC, global warming and climate change is already a reality. Some of the
effects, which have been observed, are described below with projection of
possible effects into the 21st century.
Increased
global average temperature
The
global average surface temperature has increased over the 20th
century by about 0.6oC and the temperature increase is
projected to accelerate in the coming century. Increased average
temperatures on earth are expected to raise sea levels primarily due to
thermal expansion of the earth’s water-masses and the melting of glaciers
and ice caps. This, in turn, is expected to lead to permanent flooding and
damage of large land areas including agricultural land, cities, wetlands
and forests, damage to marine ecosystems such as coral reefs, and
salt intrusion into freshwater in rivers, lakes, wetlands and ground.
Higher
maximum temperatures and more hot days and heat waves
It is likely that higher maximum temperatures and more hot
days is already a reality in nearly all land-areas, and it is very likely
that this trend will continue during the 21st century and it is likely
that increased summer continental drying and associated risk of drought
will appear in the 21st century. In certain areas, this may
lead to increased incidence of death and serious illness in older age
groups and urban poor, increased heat stress in livestock, wildlife and
increased risk of damage to crops in certain areas.
Increased
precipitation
It
is likely that precipitation has increased in the 20th
century and that there has been an increase of heavy precipitation
events and it is likely that the increase of precipitation and the
trend of more intense precipitation events will continue in the 21st
century together with larger year to year variations. In certain
areas, it is very likely, that this may lead to increased flooding,
landslide, avalanche, and soil erosion risk.
The effects of climate
change vary from region to region in the world and so does the
sensitivity to changes and the capacity of societies to adapt.
Specific impacts and concerns about various parts of the world can be
found below. All statements in the following are cited directly
from Ahmad O.K. et al., 2001 (see below) with permission from IPCC.
Africa
Asia
Australia
and New Zealand
Europe
Latin
America
North
America
Polar
Small
Island States
References:
Statements and predictions in this section are all based
on following two references:
Albritton, D.L. et al. (2001): "Climate Change 2001:
The Scientific Basis - Summary for Policy makers”. A report of Working
Group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC.
Ahmad Q.K. et al. (2001):"Climate Change 2001:
Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability - Summary for Policymakers". A
report of Working Group II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, IPCC.
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